Fasten your seatbelts: Starting 1/1/2026 Putin turns Oreshnik toward European capitals – Wiping out the entire EU in 9 minutes

The Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system will be operational by January 1, 2026.

January 1, 2026, inaugurates a new era for Vladimir Putin’s Russia, with the Russian leader reportedly determined to respond instantly to Western threats by utilizing the powerful, hypersonic Oreshnik missile in combat positions for the first time. The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, announced on December 17 during a Ministry of Defense council meeting that the Oreshnik ballistic system will achieve operational readiness by the first day of the new year. Developed as Russia’s first post-Soviet type of medium-range ballistic missile, it was confirmed in June that it had entered mass production. It is estimated to have a range of 4,000 kilometers and carries multiple independently targetable warheads mounted on hypersonic re-entry vehicles.

These vehicles can maneuver and approach strategic targets from unexpected directions. This capability, combined with their extreme speeds, significantly limits the ability of traditional air defense systems—such as Germany’s recently acquired Arrow 3 system—to intercept them effectively.

The balance of power across Europe is being radically overturned

The deployment of the Oreshnik is considered a potential game-changer for the balance of power in Europe, as it can strike strategic, political, and military targets across the continent with pinpoint accuracy that is practically impossible to stop. A pre-production version of the missile was first launched in combat on November 21 against a Ukrainian target in Dnipro, marking the program’s official reveal to the world. The capabilities of the Oreshnik have caused serious concern across the Western world, with the Russian Ambassador to the UK, Andrey Kelin, stating that the first successful combat launch had a significant impact on British policy toward Moscow, forcing London to adopt a more cautious stance regarding support for Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory.

Belarus is next in line

The deployment of the new ballistic missile system in the territory of Russia’s sole European ally, Belarus, is expected to take priority. Russia’s Security Council Secretary, Alexander Volfovich, confirmed on May 29 that deployments would begin before the end of the year. The missiles are expected to be mounted on the Belarusian MZKT-79291 12-wheel chassis. It is anticipated that conventionally armed variants will be exported to equip the Belarusian Armed Forces, while nuclear-capable versions will remain under Belarusian control during wartime as part of the Russia-Belarus nuclear sharing agreement.

Ballistic missiles change the facts in modern warfare

Analysts have theorized that Russian interest in the Oreshnik intensified following the first large-scale long-range ballistic missile test in June, where Iranian weaponry played a central role in determining the outcome of the conflict with Israel. This significantly balanced the advantages of Israeli air power. If the Oreshnik is acquired on a large scale, it could similarly provide the capability to inflict unbearable costs on European capitals without crossing the nuclear threshold, offsetting Russian weaknesses in various conventional sectors, particularly in air power.

The installation of powerful missiles on Belarusian soil is a reality

The recent deployment of Russian Oreshnik medium-range ballistic systems in Belarus has caused alarm in Ukraine and among its allies, who view this move as a serious escalation of the military threat and a dangerous challenge to the broader European region. The decision by President Vladimir Putin to approve the installation in Belarus at the request of Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko signals a strengthening of military cooperation between the two countries, with strategic consequences for Ukraine, NATO, and global security. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine and its allies will prepare responses to this new strategic development, emphasizing the need for coordinated defense management of the threat posed by the Oreshnik system.

The deployment of the Oreshnik system in Belarus

The Oreshnik system, which has been operational and on combat duty since December 17, 2025, is an advanced medium-range ballistic system capable of launching missiles with high precision and speed. Its deployment in Belarus is part of the growing military relations with Russia, with Minsk supporting strategic cooperation as a measure to protect its national security. Lukashenko has stated that military cooperation with Russia strengthens strategic defense, acknowledging increasing pressure from the West and the need for stronger security, especially amid rising Western sanctions and the strengthening of NATO’s military presence in the region. His statements reinforce the image of a Belarus that is becoming increasingly integrated into Russia’s strategic choices.

Panic in Ukraine

Zelensky, in a speech, mentioned that Ukraine has already gathered significant intelligence regarding the deployment of Russian ballistic systems in Belarus and that his country is working with allies to prepare a comprehensive strategy. The Oreshnik system, as Zelensky notes, cannot be easily shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems, and its military capability exceeds Ukraine’s defensive limits, making it a serious threat to the Kyiv regime. The Ukrainian president also pointed out that the proliferation of such weapons constitutes a global threat and a dangerous precedent for European security. Ukraine, as part of the international community, will take action in cooperation with its allies to address this escalation, according to the Kyiv administration. Ukraine’s strategic reaction is expected to include both political and military measures, with Zelensky asking allies to strengthen sanctions against Russia and Belarus.

Belarus’s reaction and strategic implications

Belarus, under Lukashenko’s leadership, has already stated that the use of the Oreshnik will be decided by Minsk and not Moscow, demonstrating the increased strategic autonomy it seeks for the country’s defense. Lukashenko and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Hrenin stated that Belarus, if necessary, will define the targets for the Oreshnik missiles and that Russia will provide support for the operation of these formidable missiles. This strategy has caused intense concern in the region, given that Belarus is in immediate proximity to Ukraine and Poland, while simultaneously serving as an area of strategic importance for Russia. The possibility of using these systems carries serious strategic implications, as it can affect the security of not only Ukraine but also the wider NATO region.

Russia and the international political dimension of “offensive defense”

The deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus is linked to Russia’s broader strategy to strengthen its positions in Eastern Europe and prevent NATO’s expansion. Russia, under Putin, has sought to bolster its defensive capabilities in former Soviet bloc countries using a strategic offensive defense to counter NATO’s deployment and ongoing military pressure from the West. Russia continues to argue that its actions in the region are defensive and preemptive, aiming to protect itself from growing threats.

What the West will do

However, the international community, and especially the European Union and the United States, see this move as a “further escalation of Russia’s aggressive strategy.” The West, and particularly NATO, is expected to counter the Oreshnik deployment with an increased military presence in the region, while simultaneously attempting to increase pressure on Russia and Belarus through sanctions and diplomatic maneuvers. The strengthening of NATO’s military presence in Poland and the Baltic states, as well as further military support for Ukraine, appear to be the main tools for dealing with this new threat. Furthermore, the United States and European allies are expected to strengthen sanctions to reduce the Kremlin’s strategic capabilities and limit its military influence.

Balances are being overturned

The deployment of the Russian Oreshnik system in Belarus is one of the most serious strategic developments in Eastern Europe, with significant impacts on Ukraine’s security and the overall balance of power. Ukraine and its allies are called to prepare for this threat, while the West is expected to intensify its strategic moves to curb Russia’s influence and protect the security of the wider region.

What the Oreshnik can do

The Oreshnik system is one of Russia’s most modern and dangerous weapons, designed to enhance its strategic presence. It is a medium-range ballistic system designed to provide increased precision and power for strikes against long-distance targets.

Regarding its key capabilities:

1. Range: Oreshnik missiles have a range of approximately 2,500 to 5,000 kilometers, making them capable of hitting targets at great distances, such as EU and NATO countries. This capability allows Russia to extend its influence in the region while providing Belarus with a strong strategic advantage.

2. Precision: The missiles are equipped with advanced guidance systems that allow them to strike strategic targets, such as military bases or critical infrastructure, with high accuracy. This capability is particularly dangerous as the system can achieve strikes deep within territory, which is difficult for traditional defensive shields to counter.

3. Hypersonic capability: They can reach hypersonic speeds, making them extremely difficult to intercept. Their hypersonic speed (exceeding Mach 5) means that reaction times for defense systems are significantly reduced, leading to a higher probability of interception failure.

4. High durability: The system was designed to penetrate modern defensive lines, featuring special characteristics that increase its ability to bypass anti-missile defenses. Its ability to strike even in areas with reinforced defenses like Patriot or S-400 systems makes the Oreshnik one of the most resilient weapons in the world.

5. Multiple launches: These missiles can be launched from mobile platforms, allowing Russia to place the system in various strategic positions, making it harder for enemy forces to locate and destroy. This feature makes the system quite flexible and capable of avoiding enemy attacks.

Ukraine’s inability to intercept this system with existing defensive means, such as Patriot or S-400 systems, creates serious concerns for the country’s future defensive capacity. The speed and accuracy of the Oreshnik mean that any offensive action could cause massive damage to strategic targets.

Impact on NATO

The deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus is not only a local threat to Ukraine but also a broader challenge for Europe and NATO, the North Atlantic Alliance claims, ignoring the inherent right of Moscow and Minsk to maximum possible deterrence. The system strengthens Russia’s strategic influence and affects the power balance in Eastern Europe, causing disruption in many NATO countries. Specifically, its ability to hit targets at depth, even beyond the borders of Belarus, has caused concern for the protection of member states, especially former Soviet republics. The reaction of the West and NATO will likely include the strengthening of military means and anti-missile systems in the region to balance the speed and power of the Oreshnik.

www.bankingnews.gr

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