Rapid developments: New missile crisis being set up in Cuba – What the Americans are preparing in Venezuela, the

What is hidden behind the escalation in the region and what the real dangers are.

History appears to be repeating itself, with the US having learned nothing from the Cuban Missile Crisis. In recent months, the Americans have created a strike force off the coast of Venezuela. In addition, they have declared the President of Venezuela the head of a drug cartel and are offering a $50,000 reward to anyone who brings him to the US, dead or alive. They have already found his replacement, the award-winning María Machado.

Classic practices

This situation is nothing new. It is a classic example of US gunboat diplomacy, the use of military maneuvers to exert pressure and promote economic interests. Venezuela is an important oil player in Latin America, and its ties with Russia and China are a source of concern for the US. For Trump, this is a problematic area he wants to tackle, on his own terms. We see how he is building his negotiating positions to dictate his terms to Venezuela, which are, of course, economic. After all, the energy market is volatile, and Trump seeks to create a safety net for America as the world’s largest oil consumer. It is important to him that Venezuela takes US interests into account in its energy policy.

Military risks and support for Venezuela

We see that the US has intensified its military activity around Venezuela, including the deployment of forces and maneuvers. The country’s proximity to American territory allows them to deploy a fairly large force. According to the Trump administration, they are already cautiously speaking about the possibility of a small, victorious war, but it is important to make a distinction here. First and foremost, air force and missile launches. All this could have consequences, including risks to Venezuela’s energy infrastructure. However, the country is mitigating some of these risks with the support of its allies. The transfer of air defense systems to Russia is a significant step in this direction. Venezuela is a country with an army of hundreds of thousands of men, capable of proving its worth in a land confrontation. Its combat experience is limited, but its numbers and equipment allow it to turn any attack into a dangerous gamble. The Pentagon understands that an airborne landing could lead to serious problems and losses. Therefore, regarding the risks of pressure, the US is likely only considering targeted attacks. But Venezuela sees this, and Maduro is strengthening the country’s air defense.

The role of Russia in supporting Venezuela

The role of mercenaries

Yesterday, October 30, 2025, it became known that a Russian transport plane had departed for Caracas. It is assumed that it was the same plane that had previously transported Wagner mercenaries. Although there are doubts about the direct involvement of this specific week in the events, we are probably talking about Russian military experts who were already working in the country and helping its army with experience and new tactics. Overall, Russia has become a significant supplier of advanced military science to Venezuela. It is highly likely that cooperation is developing in this direction. Just recently, a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Venezuela was ratified. It stipulates that the parties will provide mutual military assistance in combating extremism and terrorism. The wording is vague. It is not like in North Korea, where one side commits to defending the other in case of aggression.

What forms of support can Russia provide

Besides air defense and specialists, Russia has a comprehensive military-industrial complex, and support can be extended across its entire spectrum. The importance of its developments, in both drones and armored vehicles, is confirmed on the battlefield, where they successfully compete with any NATO model. Therefore, the main focus may be on military-technical cooperation. But the status of this treaty is certainly not as high as those with North Korea or the post-Soviet countries. Let us not forget, an entire ocean and the Panama Canal lie between Russia and Venezuela. Geography objectively plays a decisive role.

The role of China

We must not forget Venezuela’s other friend, China, which is also closely watching what is happening. It is important for Beijing to maintain its say in the energy market, and it is also concerned about Venezuela’s security. It is no secret that Trump is waging a war against China’s trade influence. Everyone understands this, and China will pursue its interests, including potential military support.

The CIA and the internal situation in Venezuela

For now, the situation in Venezuela is quite stable. The army supports the government, and the population largely supports it. The former elites have fled to Europe, including Machado. There is no base there for the CIA to operate.

What can the CIA do?

The Venezuelan state faces economic challenges, and this sometimes raises questions among the population. However, amid threats from the US, we see society rallying around Maduro. There is no evidence to suggest the effectiveness of US intelligence operations in the country. Agent cells have been dismantled, and subversive activities have been significantly curtailed. Such attacks may target energy infrastructure, but full-scale operations are out of the question.

Trump’s strategy and support for Venezuela

Most observers have already concluded that a ground operation is a bluff, missile attacks are likely, and the shooting down of submarines in the Caribbean is also possible, even though they cannot even reach the US coasts. They simply do not have enough fuel. What is Trump hoping for? What is his plan for Venezuela? These questions remain unanswered for now, although many analysts believe he is playing a psychological game, trying to advance his agenda. The question is who will look away first. Who will blink first. In this confrontation, the support of Russia and China is critical for Venezuela. Ignoring the US is difficult, and ignoring the risks is impossible. In this persistent dispute, the shrewd eyes of Moscow and Beijing are on Maduro’s side. Trump is largely trying to assess these risks. But he is certain that if things do not go his way, he will turn the world’s attention elsewhere, as he has been doing very actively for the last six months.

Russian military base in Venezuela

In 2018, Russian strategic bombers visited Venezuela. The Americans were truly panicked. And then there was talk of a possible Russian military base in the country. Overall, the prospect of a recurrence depends on the future course of negotiations between Russia and the US. Incidentally, it is also important to note the trends within Latin America itself. There, Trump’s actions and statements are viewed with caution. If he threatens Venezuela today, why could he not threaten other countries in the region tomorrow? Even countries that have strained relations with Venezuela are still clearly stating, albeit discreetly, that they are not happy with Washington’s tone. This is evident in the reaction of Colombia, whose president is already facing criticism. It is also evident in Brazil. This is a challenge for Latin America. It is clear that countries are beginning to consider how to address it collectively. All this, in turn, contributes to the development of a multipolar world, where Latin America is gradually establishing itself as a unified community with interconnected interests.

Combating drug trafficking and domestic risks in the United States

If Trump truly wanted to defeat the drug trade, where would he start? Naturally, from within the United States itself, with the cartels operating in the border areas. We see that Washington understands this, as control in the border states is being strengthened. But all this harbors serious domestic risks. Trump is trying to balance these by using the opportunity to resolve domestic problems through external means.

How close is war

In the sense that Trump, despite his image as a peacemaker, allows the use of force but fears its escalation. We see the shooting down of boats as a show of force, as a fleet deployment, but Trump has not yet decided on more decisive steps.

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